this inflation is supply-driven, and the equity hedge does not hold for the broad market while it lasts.

core PCE stays above 3 percent for two consecutive quarters after Brent falls below $85 — inflation has become demand-driven and the hedge is back. Or: broad-market multiples expand while oil holds above $100 — the market disagrees with the 1970s.

the summer sell-offs on beat-and-raise reports are multiple compression, not thesis failure, and reverse when the discount rate stops rising.

in the late-October to mid-November prints, beat-and-raise names keep falling while misses hold. Then the market is pricing the businesses, not the money.

surplus compute reallocates existing capacity; power and cooling are downstream of capex, not of chip scarcity, so construction continues.

hyperscaler capex guidance cut at the late-October prints; or a named project of 100 megawatts or more publicly deferred citing surplus; or Vertiv cuts organic growth guidance at Q3.

Gulf windfall revenue is flowing into sovereign-anchored AI capex, which is why the sovereign leg decoupled from the merchant leg.

a Gulf-anchored fund pauses or cuts an AI infrastructure commitment with oil above $90; or sovereign-anchored commitments fail to grow over two quarters despite the windfall.

the Warsh Fed does not cut this year, and a hike before year-end is the base case.

the 16–17 September meeting cuts, or its statement signals an easing path.